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Turnout tends to be lower, and holding an election during a February snowstorm doesn't make voting any more attractive. The fact that the seat in New York’s 3rd Congressional District was scandal-tainted by Santos means the GOP had an extra burden to motivate their voters. Republicans, meanwhile, tend to show up more on Election Day, and Nassau County Republicans have an unusually good turnout machine. Not only did Suozzi win the election, but he was winning in the Nassau County part of the district by 6 percentage points with 93% of the vote in. That margin would mark a massive shift from 2022, when Santos won the county by 10 percentage points over Democratic foe Robert Zimmerman.

Persons: George Santos, Santos, Tom Suozzi, Republican Mazi, Joe Biden's, Pilip, Donald Trump, weren't, Sen, Chris Murphy, Tom Bonior, Bonior, Robert Zimmerman, There's Organizations: Congressional, GOP, Republican, Republicans, Democratic Congressional, Biden, House Republicans, Senate, Democratic Locations: New York’s, New York, Connecticut, Snowplows, TargetSmart, Nassau, Nassau County, Blue America

Special elections Tuesday could provide a high-stakes assessment of how suburban voters feel about the border, abortion rights, the two leading presidential candidates and whether the House of Representatives should be led by Democrats or Republicans. In another race, to fill a vacant seat in the Pennsylvania General Assembly, Democrat Jim Prokopiak is in a close race against Republican Candace Cabanas. But it’s the New York race that has the attention of election-watchers because of its amplified importance in the closely divided House of Representatives. Should Democrats prevail in the toss-up election, they'll flip the seat held by Santos and give themselves some momentum heading into November. Pilip has cast Suozzi as weak on border security, a powerful issue in a state where migrants have been transported after coming over the southern border.

Persons: George Santos, Democrat Jim Prokopiak, Republican Candace Cabanas, Santos, Don Levy, Tom Suozzi, Mazi, Levy, Pilip, Suozzi, Bill Cunningham, Tom Bonier, Bonier, Cunningham, Joe Biden Organizations: Democrats, Voters, Republican, Assembly, Democrat, York, GOP, Siena College Research Institute, Democratic, Rep, Federal, Commission Locations: , New York, Pennsylvania, York, New York

But this year, abortion is on the ballot, with party control of the closely divided chambers of the legislature determining whether Virginia will lose its status as the last Southern state where abortion is mostly legal and accessible. Democrats, meanwhile, see the races as critical not only to sustaining abortion rights in swing-state Virginia but as a test of how powerful the issue remains nationally. Predicting winners is always difficult in state legislative races, but especially hard in Virginia. Where Democrats have an edge, experts say, is on the motivating factor of abortion rights. Since Dobbs, pro-abortion rights voters have become more energized, Rackaway says, since they're trying to regain something they lost in the Supreme Court ruling.

Persons: Danica Roem, Danny Diggs, Glenn Youngkin, Youngkin's, Chapman Rackaway, Youngkin –, Zack Roday, Dobbs, Steven Farnsworth, University of Mary Washington, Ohioans, Andy Beshear, Daniel Cameron, Jaime Harrison, Harrison, Kyle Kondick, Biden, Youngkin, Farnsworth, –, Rackaway, you've, Diggs, Roday doesn't, they've, Roday, Heather Williams Organizations: Senate, Republican, Gov, Old Dominion, Republicans, Radford University, U.S . Senate, GOP, Youngkin's PAC, Jackson, Health Organization, University of Mary, Democratic, Bluegrass State, Democratic National Committee, Center, Politics, University of Virginia, Virginia, Democrats, The Washington Post, –, National Democrats, Democratic Legislative, Republican National Committee, Republican Party of Virginia, Campaign Locations: Northern Virginia, Virginia, Southern, Old, Dobbs – California , Kansas , Kentucky, Michigan, Montana, Vermont, Pennsylvania, Kentucky

☆ With eye on 2024, Republicans push for early voting despite Trump's rhetoric
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-26 | by ( Joseph Ax | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

That could make it difficult for the party to deliver a coherent message on early voting. In an advertisement that aired during the first Republican presidential debate in August, RNC Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel said into the camera: "When Republicans vote early, we win." With Trump railing against the practice, Democrats have increased their edge in early voting. In 2022, that gap widened, with Democrats accounting for 42.5% of early ballots and Republicans 33.8%. But Youngkin advisers said their data showed the early vote campaign had brought in ballots from low-propensity voters as well.

Persons: Glenn Youngkin, Jonathan Ernst, Donald Trump, Trump, haven't, Youngkin, Ronna McDaniel, Tom Bonier, Bonier, Dave Rexrode, Joseph Ax, Nathan Layne, Colleen Jenkins, Deepa Babington Organizations: Virginia Republican, REUTERS, Virginia, White House, U.S, Senate, Republican, Republican State Leadership Committee, Republican National Committee, Trump, University of Florida, Banking, Democrats, Republicans, Democratic Legislative, Committee, Democratic, Thomson Locations: Chantilly , Virginia, U.S, Virginia, Henrico County, Iowa

☆ Biden’s Age, Trump’s Indictments and Other Fallacies Pulled From the Polls
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-15 | by ( Susan Milligan | ) www.usnews.com time to read: +10 min

Will Americans toss out President Joe Biden for being too old and see Vice President Kamala Harris as a worse option? "The indictments of Donald Trump have not boosted him in the polls, either for favorability or for his support in the GOP primary. The impact of Biden's age and Vice President Kamala Harris' presence on the ticket has also been misrepresented, pollsters say. The Biden-Harris campaign is sending the vice president to speak at college campuses in the coming months. "I do think that having Vice President Harris is a net plus for the ticket," says youth voting activist Victor Shi, a Biden 2020 delegate.

Persons: Donald Trump's, Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Biden, Trump, Charles Franklin, Franklin, Donald Trump, Trump's, Ron DeSantis, DeSantis, pollster Ben Lazarus, Lazarus, that's, –, Robert F, Kennedy Jr, Marianne Williamson, Nate Birkhead, Birkhead, Harris, Newt Gingrich, Harris –, Victor Shi, Biden's, Shi, it's, Laura Kelly, Kelly, YouGov, Dobbs Organizations: Trump, Republican, Democratic, Marquette Law School, GOP, District of, Florida Gov, Pew Research Center, Donald Trump View, Biden, CBS, Kansas State University, Democratic Gov, Gallup, Republicans Locations: Wisconsin, New York, Florida, District, District of Columbia, Georgia’s Fulton County, Trump, United States, Ukraine, Russia, American, Kansas

☆ Abortion politics take center stage after Biden campaign capitalizes on GOP debate rift
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-26 | by ( Arit John | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

The GOP divide was laid bare on the debate stage this week, as candidates backed a 15-week abortion ban, deferred to the states or tried to split the difference. “There’s no real consensus at this point.”Biden’s reelection campaign has also homed in on remarks GOP candidates made on abortion during the debate. The ad, aimed at women in seven battleground states, is part of a $25 million ad campaign CNN first reported earlier this week. Republicans have begun to coalesce around the idea of a federal abortion ban after 15 weeks of pregnancy. Pence used his remarks at the same conference to call on every GOP candidate to back a 15-week ban as a national standard.

Persons: Roe, Wade, Joe Biden’s, ”, Whit Ayres, “, ” Biden’s, Republicans “, Biden’s, Donald Trump, Donald Trump , South Carolina Sen, Tim Scott, Ron DeSantis, ” Biden, Julie Chavez Rodriguez, Dobbs, Jackson, Trump –, Georgia –, Tom Bonier, Bonier, they’ve, DeSantis, Susan B, Anthony Pro, ” Marjorie Dannenfelser, Kellyanne Conway, Nikki Haley, Asa Hutchinson, Doug Burgum, Mike Pence, Scott, Pence, CNN’s Dana Bash, Trump, ” Trump, Ayres, they’ll Organizations: CNN, Republican, GOP, Democratic, Republicans, ” CNN, Florida Gov, MAGA Republicans, Associated Press, NORC, for Public Affairs Research, Voters, Biden, America, Washington, Trump White House, UN Ambassador, South Carolina Gov, Arkansas Gov, Asa Hutchinson , North Dakota Gov, Thursday Fox, Trump, Freedom Coalition Locations: Donald Trump , South Carolina, Florida, U.S, Nevada , Arizona , Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arkansas, Asa Hutchinson , North

☆ How a Sexual Assault in a School Bathroom Became a Political Weapon
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-05 | by ( Charles Homans | More About Charles Homans | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +3 min

Since 2021, at least eight states have signed into law bills restricting bathroom use. I asked Prior why these bills succeeded when similar legislation had so resoundingly failed not even a decade ago. Last fall, a Public Religion Research Institute survey found an 18-point shift in favor of restrictive bathroom policies among political independents since 2016, and a 17-point shift among all Americans. The Public Religion Research Institute survey found that while independents have soured significantly on transgender policies, the largest swing by far has been among Republicans. In another postelection study, TargetSmart, a Democratic data firm, matched Virginia’s 2021 election data to individual voters’ demographic information.

Persons: Ian, resoundingly, “ It’s, ”, ‘, ’ ”, “ Organizations: America, Religion Research Institute, Virginia, Democratic, Schools Locations: Loudoun County

☆ How Trump’s legacy became ‘pure poison’ for independents
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( Ronald Brownstein | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +16 min

Among female independents, Trump’s ratings were even worse: just 23% favorable and 72% unfavorable, according to previously unpublished exit poll results provided by the CNN polling unit. Trump’s unfavorable rating hit a comparable 69% among independents with at least a four-year college degree. That was a significantly smaller advantage than the double-digit lead among independents Democrats enjoyed in both the 2020 presidential race and the 2018 contest for the House. While Democrats held the presidency, Republicans won independents by double-digits in House elections in the midterms of 2014, 2010 and 1994. Gretchen Whitmer won 59% of the independents with degrees and 56% of women independents.

☆ Warnock gains early voting edge as both candidates barnstorm Georgia in final day before Senate runoff
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-05 | by ( Https | Media-Cldnry.S-Nbcnews.Com Image Upload Newscms Sahil-Kapur-Headshot.Jpg | Sahil Kapur | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +7 min

An early vote that topped 1.85 million showed other positive signs for Warnock, with Democrats enjoying a 13-point edge — larger than the party’s 8-point lead in November’s early vote, according to TargetSmart’s model. But Walker is widely expected to win more of the votes cast on Election Day. Residents wait in line to vote early outside a polling station on Nov. 29 in Atlanta. Walker “needs to win Election Day by double digits,” said Cody Hall, an adviser to Kemp, who said the Republican candidate will have to outperform his advantage from November's Election Day. “But I would just caution everyone that base Republican voters in the last couple of cycles have liked turning out on Election Day.

ATLANTA — Georgia has set new records for early voting again as the two Senate candidates blitz the state ahead of Tuesday’s runoff election. White voters made up 55% of early voters, 32% were Black, and Latinos and Asian Americans each accounted for less than 2% of the total. Among Georgians under 30 years old, 15.5% of early runoff voters didn’t turn out for the general election. A resident fills out paperwork before early voting at a polling station in Atlanta on Tuesday. Another 32% of early voters are age 50 to 64, and 30% are younger than 50.

Outgunned financially as Democrats dominate early voting, Herschel Walker’s Georgia Senate campaign Thursday begged donors to pony up more money because of Sen. Raphael Warnock’s growing sense of momentum. We need help,” Walker campaign manager Scott Paradise wrote in the memo sent to donors Thursday, which was obtained by NBC News ahead of Tuesday’s runoff election. “Core Republican voters just can’t get fired up about Walker, and they came out in the general because they liked Kemp or their congressional candidates. The Walker campaign is no longer beaming with the confidence it had heading into Election Day in November. “Some people still can’t get over the Trump connection,” said Ed Muldrow, the former chairman of the Gwinnett County GOP.

☆ Asian American voters are flexing their political muscle in the Georgia Senate runoff
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-27 | by ( John L. Dorman | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Both the Warnock and Walker campaigns have courted this crucial bloc ahead of the Senate runoff. Ballots cast by Asian American voters rose dramatically from 2016 to 2020, from 73,000 votes to 134,000 votes, respectively, according to the Democratic polling data firm TargetSmart. Per CNN exit polling from the November general election, Warnock won Asian American voters by 20 points over Walker (59%-39%). Brian Kemp cultivated relationships with Asian American voters during his successful campaign. "We're the only demographic group that keeps going up," Georgia state Sen.-elect Nabilah Islam told Politico.

☆ Analysis: Abortion, Trump dashed Republican hopes for 'red wave'
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-09 | by ( James Oliphant | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

They wanted to protect abortion rights and stop candidates beholden to Republican former president Donald Trump. That surprised Democratic Party strategists and pollsters, who had expected inflation would trump everything, including concerns about the loss of abortion rights. Michigan voters approved a ballot issue that gave abortion state constitutional protection and re-elected Governor Gretchen Whitmer, who had vowed to “fight like hell” to protect abortion rights. Sydney Wright, an 18-year-old student at the University of Nevada, Reno, said she counts herself as a conservative but voted Democratic because of abortion. THE TRUMP FACTORLike Wright, Nyasha Riley, 37, a registered Republican in Phoenix, voted for Democrats because of abortion rights and Trump.

☆ Analysis: Abortion, Trump dash Republican hopes for 'red wave'
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-09 | by ( James Oliphant | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

☆ Some in White House worry abortion message bungled before midterms
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-07 | by ( Nandita Bose | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Some White House officials believe they should have linked abortion to economic concerns more, rather than fundamental rights and privacy, three sources with direct knowledge of the matter said. The White House faced a similar situation when trying to expand the child tax credit earlier this year, both sources noted. White House spokesman Kevin Munoz dismissed "any notion of over focus" on reproductive rights and said Biden has addressed multiple issues. The White House has asked the DNC to gather data for an election postmortem to identify what messages worked and what didn't, party sources said. The White House signed executive orders on the issue and met with state legislators, grassroots activists and coalitions to finetune abortion messaging.

DALLAS — Well before jumping into the Texas attorney general's race, Democrat Rochelle Garza beat back a Trump administration attempt to stop a detained immigrant teenager from getting an abortion. Bob Daemmrich / Zuma via Alamy fileGarza has already made history by being the first Latina nominee for Texas attorney general. I’m a mother and I’m here to beat criminally indicted Ken Paxton,” Garza told supporters gathered at a Chocolate Secrets in Dallas. Polls have shown Garza within 2 to 7 percentage points of Paxton with all Texas voters. Tony Gutierrez / AP filePaxton was recently in the headlines again for fleeing his home to avoid being served a subpoena to testify in a lawsuit challenging Texas’ abortion ban.

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